As the international break draws to a close, we take a look at the GW30 fixtures. Liverpool look to have an unassailable lead at the top of the table, with Arne Slot’s men 12 points clear of closest chasers Arsenal FC. Below we dive into the fixtures with a look at potential betting markets that offer ‘value’.
Wednesday 2nd April 2025
Arsenal vs Fulham – 5:45AM
In welcome news for Arsenal fans, Bukayo Saka is again available for selection after being out with a serious hamstring injury. Calafiori has unfortunately picked up a knee injury while on international duty with Italy and is set to miss a few weeks. Jurrien Timber is expected to be available for selection after being out recently with an illness. Arsenal have won just 3 of their last 8 matches and have been quite stunted in front of goal recently. The return of Saka helps, however Fulham’s recent away record is top-notch, having avoided defeat in 10 of their last 12. Harry Wilson, Kenny Tete & Reiss Nelson all miss the trip to North London, where Fulham will be hoping to take points off Arsenal for a 3rd time in 4 matches.
Suggested Bet: Draw @ $4.50
Wolves vs West Ham – 5:45AM
Matheus Cunha is unavailable due to suspension, in a big blow to Wolves. In a game that would usually have so much on the line given their respective league positions, strangely both teams seem destined to stay in the division considering the woeful form of those below them. Wolves are conceding almost 2 goals per game at home, so I expect West Ham to score. However, a win for Wolves would go a long way to all but securing their PL status for 2026.
Suggested Bet: 1-1 Draw @ $6 or BTTS. @ $1.80
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United – 6:00AM
With Chris Wood ruled out and Morgan Gibbs-White in doubt due to injury, this is a fantastic chance for Man United to get a great result at a tough away ground. I expect this to be a close game, and think one goal could be enough for either team. Interestingly, Manchested United have won to nil in 3 of their last 4 visits to the City Ground.
Suggested Bet: 1-0 Man United @ $10.50
Thursday 3rd April 2025
Bournemouth vs Ipswich – 5:45AM
This is a game where I expect to see goals. Bournemouth simultaneously outperform their xGC (they have conceded 7.42 goals less than expected) and underperform their xG (they have scored 11.42 less goals than expected) In simple terms, this means they should both be conceding and scoring more goals based on the chances that they concede and create. Historically speaking, teams can only deviate for so long before these numbers start to come closer together. Interestingly, Bournemouth are actually 2nd in the EPL for xG. Ipswich have an xGC of 65.2 from 29 matches.
Suggested Bet: Bournemouth win & Over 2.5 Goals @ $1.95
Brighton vs Aston Villa – 5:45AM
The Seagulls are hitting their straps at the pointy end of the season, coming into this game in good league form. They have 4 wins and 1 draw in their lasy 5 fixtures. Aston Villa have been struggling on the road of late, only winning 2 of their last 10 fixtures (and only 2 wins in the league from their last 5) Value looks quite hard to find in this game, so would suggest leaving this one out of bets.
Suggested Bet: Brighton win @ $2.10
Man City vs Leicester – 5:45AM
Talisman Erling Haaland has been ruled out with injury, though a time frame has yet to be determined. This opens the door for January signing Omar Marmoush to lead the line for the Citizens. There is a huge gulf in class between these two teams and I would expect City to well and truly get the job done at home. Leicester have only scored in 4 of their last 14 matches, and this fixtures looks to be far too tough.
Suggested Bet: Man City to win by 3 or more goals @ $2.50
Newcastle vs Brentford – 5:45AM
Two sides that are very evenly matched in a lot of data points and metrics. Sharing similar xG & xGC stats and only being separated by 6 points on the table, this is a truly one of those games where no result would be surprising. Anthony Gordon is still out suspended for the home team, though in form Alexander Isak is always a threat in front of goal.
Suggested Bet: NA
Southampton vs Crystal Palace – 5:45AM
Southampton have unfortunately lost 24 of the 29 fixtures played this season so it is very hard to predict anything other than another loss. The Saints rank 20/20 in xGC and 18/20 in xG, which makes for dismal reading. Crystal Palace are on a high after securing a semi final berth at Wembley this week, so would expect them to be too strong for Southampton, even without Mateta who is expected to again miss this match due to a head injury.
Suggested Bet: Crystal Palace to score 3 or more goals @ $3.20
Liverpool vs Everton – 6:00AM
The Merseyside Derby, where we can basically ignore form going into this fixture. I think the International Break has come at a really good time for Liverpool, as they were looking tired and a bit worse for wear in recent fixtures against PSG & Newcastle. The break will do them a world of good and I do expect them to be too good for Everton, despite the away teams recent knack for sharing the points in league fixtures (4 draws in their last 5).
Suggested Bet: Liverpool win, Mo Salah ATS, BTTS @ $4.40
Friday 4th April 2025
Chelsea vs Tottenham – 6:00AM
Chelsea will be keen to secure a positive result, as they are only 1 point ahead of Man City in the race for Top 4. Recent form has been inconsistent, with 3 losses in their last 6. Cole Palmer is expected to return which greatly helps Chelsea and their attacking prospects. Spurs have endured a tough season, having already lost 15 times in the league. With Spurs having only picked up 1 points in their last 3 fixtures, and Chelsea having avoided defeat in 17 of their last 18 games against Spurs, it is hard to go against a Chelsea win. As this is a derby, I expect goals. The winning goal could potentially be the odd goal in 5 (rogue tip there, I know!)
Suggested Bet: 3-2 Chelsea @ $15
