Liverpool can mathematically wrap up the PL title with a win against Leicester if Arsenal lose to Ipswich. Let’s take a look at the fixtures and see if we can find a win or two amongst this gameweeks fixtures.
Sunday 20th April 2025
Brentford vs Brighton – 12:00AM
Brentford and Brighton are both struggling of late, with Brentford winless in their last eight home games and Brighton failing to win any of their last five. Despite this, Brentford’s xG numbers show they’re creating good chances, while Brighton’s high xGc points to continued defensive problems. For this reason, we will back Brentford’s best attacking asset to get on the scoresheet and favour the home side.
Suggested Bet: Mbeumo to score, Over 2.5 goals, Brentford win @ $8
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth – 12:00AM
Crystal Palace have had defensive issues lately, conceding 10 goals over their last two games. Bournemouth on the other hand have looked solid on the road, highlighted by a recent win at Fulham. Palace’s xG suggest they’ve been underperforming in attack, while Bournemouth’s stats point to a more well-represented reflection of recent form. The Cherries have been prolific in attack, scoring in 87% of their away matches this season and averaging 2 goals per game away from home. Palace have scored in 75% of their home games and conceded in 81% of those fixtures, indicating a likeliness for high-scoring matchups.
Suggested Bet: Bournemouth win & BTTS @ $5
Everton vs Man City – 12:00AM
Since David Moyes’ return in January, Everton hav been in strong form, losing just once in their last 13 fixtures. Man City’s inconsistent form and defensive vulnerabilities have been evident, making them susceptible to conceding goals, as was highlighted last week by being inches away from a 3-0 deficit vs Crystal Palace. However, with City needing to win to keep pushing for a Champions League spot in 2026, I expect them to be too strong. De Bruyne was fantastic against Palace and we are backing him to get on the scoresheet again.
Suggested Bet: Man City -1, BTTS, De Bruyne to score @ $26
West Ham vs Southampton – 12:00AM
West Ham’s xG data indicates an underperformance in both attack and defense, indicating that they don’t score as often as they should and concede more often than expected. Southampton have had a terrible season with just 10 points from 32 matches which includes a record breaking 26 losses. They genuinely might be the worst Premier League side ever, as xGc data suggests they should have conceded 10 more goals than the 77 they have conceded so far based on the chances teams create against them. It is a similar story going forward, where they have scored 23 times from an xG of 34. This suggests they are wasteful in front of goal with the minimal chances they do create.
Suggested Bet: Jarrod Bowen to score, West Ham win to nil @ $6
Aston Villa vs Newcastle – 2:30AM
Newcastle United are on a hot streak, having won five Premier League matches in a row. They’ve scored 12 goals in their last three games while conceding just one, and now sit third in the table as they try to chase down Arsenal. Aston Villa have been in strong form themselves, picking up nine wins from their last ten games. However, a narrow Champions League quarter final defeat to PSG could disrupt their rhythm. They remain well-positioned in the league as they also chase FA Cup honours. This will be a test for them as they have to manage fixtures in two competitions.
Suggested Bet: Rashford to score, BTTS, Newcastle win @ $16
