After a big week of collects in GW34, we look to get some more money off the bookies this matchday. Hope you were all following!
Congratulations to Liverpool in winning the Premier League title.
Saturday 3rd May 2025
Man City vs Wolves – 5:00AM
City are currently 4th and looking to secure a Champions League place for the 25/26 season. Recent form in the league includes 4 wins in their last 5. Wolves have been resurgent of late, winning 6 league games in a row including 4 away fixtures. They are safely in mid table and are playing with freedom which could pose a bit of a threat for a City defence that isn’t as strong as previous seasons. I like BTTS here, but will look to a come from behind victory for City for some extra value.
Suggested Bet: Man City to come from behind and win @ $7
Aston Villa vs Fulham – 9:30PM
Villa are 7th and fighting for European spots so should be up for this game. Recent form has been strong, with 4 consecutive wins before a narrow loss to City recently. Fulham are in a similar position, currently 8th and fighting for European spots, however recent form is not as strong. Villa are unbeaten at home in the league in the last 16 fixtures and have averaged over 2 xG per 90 minutes in recent home games, ranking among the Premier League’s most dangerous attacking sides. Interestingly, Fulham have averaged 1.42 xG away from home this season which is really strong, having only been stopped from scoring in 2 away fixtures.
Suggested Bet: Aston Villa win, BTTS @ $3.60
Sunday 4th May 2025
Everton vs Ipswich – 12:00AM
Everton are safe from relegation and have been resilient at home, with a solid defensive record. However, their attacking output has been poor, averaging just 0.4 goals per game in their last five games. This suggests they have been unable to create enough quality chances. Ipswich are already relegated and have nothing to play for. Their recent form has been terrible, conceding 9 in their last 3 games. Money will be going on Everton to be a little bit more clinical against lesser opposition.
Suggested Bet: Everton win 2-0 @ $8
Leicester vs Southampton – 12:00AM
Both teams come into this game with no wins in recent league fixtures, with Leicester and Southampton 19th & 20th respectively and already relegated. It is really hard to find a bet here considering the underlying metrics are so poor for both teams.
Suggested Bet: NA
Arsenal vs Bournemouth – 2:30AM
Arsenal are second in the league but have full focus on their second leg of their Champions League Semi Final tie against PSG. I would expect some rotation here. Bournemouth are pushing for a top 8 finish after falling away a little recently, with only 1 league win in their last 5. Arsenal have won all 9 previous meetings vs the Cherries at the Emirates, however Arsenal have a knack for finding ways to draw league games in 24/25 (have dropped points 9 times after leading) Arsenal’s strength is still their defence, so will put faith there rather than in attacking prowess amid rotation concerns.
Suggested Bet: Arsenal win and under 2.5 goals @ $5.25
Brentford vs Man United – 11:00PM
Brentford have won 2 of their last 5, with some solid xG scores throughout, suggesting that key players like Bryan Mbeumo are consistently a scoring threat. Man United have no wins in the league in their last 5 and will have full attention on the second leg of the Europa League Semi Final, so again would expect some rotation. xG data points to an inability to create solid chances and a struggle to defence efficiently. Brentford could certainly get the job done at home, however United should be on a high after a good European win.
Suggested Bet: Draw @ $4.40
Brighton vs Newcastle – 11:00PM
Brighton have 1 win in their last 5 and are safely sitting in mid table, but looking for a top half finish. Newcastle are 3rd and in good shape for Champions League qualification, so anything other than 3 points could be hugely problematic. They have been in good form of late, with 4 wins in their last 5 league games, with good underlying xG metrics during these fixtures.
Suggested Bet: Newcastle -1 @ $4.50
West Ham vs Spurs – 11:00PM
Teams are in 17th and 16th respectively with just 1 win between them in each of their last 5 league fixtures. Lucky for both sides, relegation has already been confirmed and they are safe. With both sides having little to play for and Spurs with one eye on their Europa League semi final, I expect a fairly close game. I’ll be looking to one of two markets, so take your pick.
Suggested Bet: Draw @ $3.70 or 2-2 @ $14
Monday 5th May 2025
Chelsea vs Liverpool – 1:30AM
Chelsea are pushing for Champions League qualification which will have large ramifications in the summer transfer window. Liverpool have secured the title, but with no other fixtures outside of the league remaining, I wouldn’t expect there to be much of a performance drop off. Both sides have good xG metrics going forward, with Chelsea more susceptible defensively. You don’t often get $3.20 for Liverpool to win a PL fixture, which is so hard to look past. I’m taking the value and hoping the hangovers on Merseyside have subsided by kickoff.
Suggested Bet: Liverpool win @ $3.20
Tuesday 6th May 2025
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest – 5:00AM
Palace are safe in mid table, while Forest are pushing for European spots still. They have dropped off a little and now sit in 6th, only having managed to win 2 league games in their last 5. The result against Brentford last week was a dent in their aspirations, however they will need to get back to winning ways straight away to keep the Champions League dream alive.
Suggested Bet: Forest win @ under 2.5 goals at $6.50
