Wests Tigers vs Cowboys – Leichardt Oval
At Leichhardt usually you’d think the Tigers would be switched on for game 1. Especially after North QLD struggled in Vegas. However, it’s always risky taking a team as favourites when we haven’t seen them play yet. The total is at 53.5 which seems high but over the last 3 years the average points scored in this fixture has been over 70 per game. I still can’t take the overs when we can’t be sure the Tigers attack will be on song in Rd 1 and with such a high total I wouldn’t be confident backing tryscorers with most outside backs at odds on or slightly over even money. This is one to sit back and take a watching brief in what should be an exciting game.
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Dragons vs Storm – WIN Stadium
Dragons v Melbourne in Wollongong might seem obvious on paper but I believe it is a lot trickier than it appears at first glance. Dragons usually get up for the Storm and have won the last 2 games between them in close low scoring contests. The Dragons defence was very good in Vegas and if they can get Melbourne into another arm wrestle they can make life difficult for them because the Dragons forwards can be a match for a lot of teams.
In addition to this, Shane Flanagan has a great record against Bellamy. No other coach has a record like it against him. Dragons’ halves are still their weakness and their attack generally struggles to put enough points on to win the close ones. I see this being another tight grind and I think that Dragons line looks a tad big at +8.5 as well as the total of 47.5 being excessive.
Suggested Bets: Dragons +8.5 @ 1.90 (neds), Total Points Under 47.5 @ 1.90 (neds), AND Dragons +8.5 / Total Points Under 47.5 @ 3.15 (neds)
Panthers vs Sharks – Carrington Park
Penrith v Sharks at Bathurst is a game between both sides that impressed in Rd 1. Penrith obviously have earned more respect for dismantling the Premiers and keeping them scoreless but Cronulla’s win seems to have been chalked off too much as a result against a wooden spoon contender who were awful in Rd 1. As bad as the Titans were in Rd 1 Cronulla did look slick with Trindall running the show and putting in one of the individual performances of the round.
I think this line of -8.5 is too big here at a neutral venue. Penrith’s record in these country games isn’t overly impressive. I do favour Penrith to win but I think the game will be tight and I’d take Cronulla +8.5 @ 1.90 in this one.
Suggested Bet: Sharks +8.5 @ $1.90 (neds)
Sea Eagles vs Knights – 4 Pines Park
Manly v Newcastle at Brookvale in a day game on a dry track is Manly’s bread and butter. Last week Manly lost a close one in conditions that didn’t favour their style of play at all but I think they will bounce back here against a side which has travelled back from Vegas and is missing one of their biggest attacking weapons in Fletcher Sharpe.
Suggested Bet: Manly -4.5 @ 1.90 (neds)
Dolphins vs Titans – Suncorp Stadium
Dolphins v Titans could be another shoot out high scoring game at Suncorp. I wouldn’t feel confident about backing Dolphins -9.5 here even though Dolphins deserve favouritism. The Titans looked really poor last week but they like a shootout just as the Dolphins do so I’m not sure Dolphins have a huge edge in a game I expect to be high scoring. Both teams defended terribly last week. However, the total for this game is 55.5 which seems too high to take the overs.
I looked at potential try scoring options here and most of the popular options are either odds on or a tad over even money which doesn’t constitute value. However, one price stood out and that is AJ Brimson at 4.10. I feel in a fast paced game Brimson will be getting his hands on the ball a lot and won’t be afraid to take the line on. He has scored in both of the last 2 games he has played vs the Dolphins (one from Fullback and the other from 5/8 – the position he’s playing in on Sunday) and I can see him getting a number of opportunities here.
Suggested Bet: AJ Brimson ATS @ 4.10 (neds)
MULTI’S OF THE WEEK
Heamasi Makasini ATS / Tom Trbojevic ATS / Herbie Farnworth ATS @ $7.64 (neds)
David Fifita ATS / AJ Brimson ATS @ $13.32 (neds)
What’s gambling really costing you? Set a deposit limit.
